Unloading the Dice: Having Shared Retirement FATE* with Congress

The dice are loaded, and so are members of Congress trading stocks on non-public information. Congress has repeatedly gutted the STOCK Act. How about their trades guide a portion of the Social Security Fund? Welcome to Digital Twin Thursday for the *Federal Actors Trading Equities Act.

Let’s unload the dice and how your roles feel about this week’s solution.

We rolled our humanizing dice for our Random Family of the Week to demonstrate our Personal Public Policy Advisor report. Soon, you, too, can click on the Digitial Twin to drown out the political parrots’ squawking.

This Week’s
Political Flap

Congress passes favorable or unfavorable laws, tax breaks, grants, and awards federal contracts, which can affect the long-term value of an industry or sector.

Congress knows what bills will become law, and they can trade stocks based on this knowledge.

The problem is, in the private sector, this would be illegal.

The solution is to get the Social Security fund in on the action.

The Shared FATE Stock Index would allow the Social Security Fund to invest up to 25% of its assets in these long-term trends to assure long-term liquidity.

But even better, what if Members of Congress could only trade US stocks held long-term in their retirement accounts, with no calls or puts?

The Social Security Fund could track that, and we’d all win.

You can track Members of Congress stock trades at Capital Trades, Senate Stock Watcher, and Quiver Quantitative.

Stocks historically outperform bonds by 2x.

This is one of our solutions to the Social Security Fund’s liquidity problem.

Why
Care?

When lawmakers and citizens share the same retirement fate, there’s a stronger incentive for wise, long-term policy choices. It’s not just governance; our nation’s future financial security is at stake. Congress and retirees would share the same retirement fate.

SPOILER
ALERT

If you’d prefer to role-play this week’s puzzle, first, now would be a good time to swoop over to PolicyKeys.com. You can read about this week’s political flap in our Monday Puzzle Drop. Tuesday, we broke the ties on all the roles that were too hard for POLI THE AI to call. Wednesday, we dished on all the politically strange bedfellows for and against the Shared FATE.

This Week’s Political
Digital Twin

Meet ‘Randy’ Random:
An All-American Mosaic

🎉 Life is a Party! 🎉
Meet Randy, a vibrant 40-something who believes life’s a party and autonomy is the ultimate freedom. With a love for country music and a knack for creating art and music, Randy is the epitome of a multi-faceted American citizen.

🔫 Gun Owner
Random cherishes the Second Amendment. Weekends are for target practice as the family’s safety is a top priority. The gun safe is as essential as the art studio in Random’s home.

🇺🇸 Moralist Republican
Randy is guided by a strong moral compass, often attending community church services. Family values are the bedrock of Randy’s life, shaping decisions from politics to parenting.

🗳️ Rank & File Democrat
But wait, there’s a twist! Randy’s spouse is a Rank & File Democrat, making dinner conversations lively yet respectful. They find common ground in their shared love for their children and community.

🌍 International NGO
Randy’s sister works for an International NGO, adding a global perspective to family discussions. Their annual charity art auction is a family affair, blending Randy’s love for art and charity.

📞 Telecom
Randy’s best friend is in Telecom, keeping them up-to-date with the latest tech trends. They bond over the newest smartphones, discussing the implications of 5G over a fifth of whiskey.

💰 Private Equity & Crowdfund
Randy’s brother works for Private Equity, while a close friend is a Crowdfunding enthusiast. They’re the go-to people for investment advice, whether it’s a startup idea or the next big IPO.

👔 Managerial & Non-Union
In the professional sphere, Randy holds a managerial position in a Non-Union company. Leadership skills are Randy’s forte, balancing employee needs with company goals.

🏛️ Mayor & County Officials
Randy’s cousin is a Mayor, and another friend serves as a County Official. Civic duty runs in the family, making local politics a frequent topic at family gatherings.

🏡 Suburban Professional & Raising Kids
Living in the suburbs, Randy is both a professional and a dedicated parent. Soccer practices, PTA meetings, and video calls fill the calendar, but there’s always time for family.

🏗️ Major Builder & Multi/National
Randy’s college roommate became a Major Builder, and another friend works for a Multi/National corporation. These connections add layers to Randy’s understanding of both local and global economies.

🔨 Materials & Restaurant
Randy’s neighbor is in the Raw Materials business, and a childhood friend owns a Restaurant. These friendships enrich Random’s life, from DIY home projects to knowing the best local eats.

So, whether it’s discussing gun rights, global issues, or the best investment opportunities, Randy’s life is a rich tapestry of diverse roles and relationships. It’s a party, and everyone’s invited! 🎉

What’s in Randy’s
Best Interests?

Support the
Shared FATE Stock Act?

While we finish testing our Political Digital Twin tool and Personal Public Policy Advisor report, here’s an example…

‘NO’

  • Moralist Republicans (6) fear the Shared FATE could back the wrong horses, leading to poor investment choices.
  • International NGOs (8) worry that a pro-USA stance could strain international relations.
  • Private Equity (14) thinks that Shared FATE could cause more bubbles to pop, destabilizing markets.
  • Multi/Nationals (18) fear that inferior solutions may get undue backing, affecting global operations.
  • Materials (18) are concerned that inferior solutions may get undue backing, affecting the materials sector.

‘YES’

  • Gun Owners (31) flush seniors will increase GDP, making the economy more robust and safer for everyone.
  • Rank & File Democrats (9) believe that protecting Social Security is a top priority.
  • Crowdfunding (27) thinks commerce just needs to know the rules for better investment decisions.
  • Managers (5) feel that a more realistic and healthier Social Security retirement plan is essential for long-term stability.
  • Suburban Professionals (11) think that greener industries need better support for a sustainable future.
  • Raising Kids (5) believes that a more realistic and healthier Social Security retirement plan will benefit future generations.
  • Restaurants (5) agree that a more realistic and healthier Social Security retirement plan is crucial for the service industry.
  • Mayor & County Officials (1) know that Congress needs a longer-term mindset.
  • Major Builders (1) think Members of Congress should be doing their jobs and not trading stocks.
  • Telecom (9) sees a more affluent populace needing more connectivity.
  • Non-Union Workers (25) believe that the Social Security Fund should be the whale in the stock market, not financial firms and billionaires.

Drumroll
Please

Wow, a lot is happening inside Randy’s head, huh? When you add up the sixteen roles’ forecasted opinions, the score is…

YES 11– NO 5 = 6 YES

The possible scores here are +16 to -16, so 6 indicates that Randy is clearly leaning in favor of the Shared FATE Stock Act, barring one or more of the ‘NO’ Reasons being way more important than all the ‘YES’ reasons.

Since these are made-up people, we’ll never know. 

But You Will

Are you making up your own mind or marching to the beat of a political parrot? While we finish testing our Political Digital Twin Tool for your Personal Public Policy Advisor Report, you can add your role’s scores from this week’s puzzle here and do your best impression of a public policy wonk. Amaze your family and friends with your super nonpartisan ways. 

You might be thinking, why would these individuals care about what their family and friends feel about this topic?

Here’s the thing: there are four kinds of love: self-love, nurture, tough-love, and self-sacrifice. Are you only ever just one of those? What percent of each are you on your best day?

Caring about what the people you love care about is what families and democratic republics do.

Super Nonpartisan Score for the Shared FATE STOCK Act

On this solution, Randy appears to be slightly more in line with POLI THE AI’s forecast than our editors.

POLI* predicts VAST SUPERMAJORITY support. Our editors were a bit less convinced. We predict a 69% ±5% (13 roles) STRONG SUPERMAJORITY of roles in this country to support the Shared FATE Stock Act, including a majority of each of the four sides of the political tablemaking this US Public Policy Leaderboard (US-PPL) worthy. 

90% and up Near Unanimous
80% – 89% NEAR CONSENSUS
75% -79% VAST SUPERMAJORITY
67% – 74% STRONG SUPERMAJORITY
60% – 66% Supermajority
50% – 59% Majority

By Contrast

SCOTUS’s approval rating is 40%,
the media is 27%, and
Congress is 13%.

The average score of the policies on the PolicyKeys™ National Idea Leaderboard is 73%, with many above 80%—Politics 4.0 is already a 2x to 3x better model of US political sentiment and direction than politics as usual. *POLI THE AI.

PolicyKeys
is based on the
Four Kinds of Love 

Self-sacrifice is giving of oneself with no expectation of reciprocation. Think of a firefighter rushing into a burning building. 

Nurture is helping someone grow into their potential and keep up their momentum. Think of a coach, a parent, or a mentor. 

Tough-love is being able to invest in the personal pain of watching someone learn from their mistakes. Think of a boss, teacher, or a loved one drawing a line in the sand. 

Self-love isn’t narcissism. It’s knowing you can’t love another until you care for yourself. Think about putting on your oxygen mask in an airplane before helping someone else. 

It’s ironic how much hate there is arguing about what kind of love should dominate public policy. The Golden Rule barely holds on to be worthy of the US Public Policy Leaderboard. What’s your mix of the four kinds of love on your best day?

Politics 4.0
PolicyKeys Values

  1. Be open to private and/or public sector solutions.
  2. Talk about public policies, not public figures.
  3. Score any solution (but leaderboard-worthy first).
  4. Show our work (be transparent).

Methodology

Politics 1.0 is each party wanting to be a one-party system. Then, Politics 2.0 is the two-party gridlock that blocks the silent supermajority from getting what it needs. Next, Politics 3.0 is all the noise from special interest groups trying to influence us to see things their way. Finally, Politics 4.0 ranks solutions with a nonpartisan score and lets the best ideas rise up the leaderboard so people can choose.

The Four Laws of
Public Policy Formation

The First Law of Public Policy Formation is that people with short-term focus will naturally protect their wages, jobs, status, profits, and wealth.

The Second Law of Public Policy Formation is that people with a longer-term focus place bets to make life better, longer, easier, or different.

The Third Law of Public Policy Formation states that the short- and long-term clash causes noise, angst, conflict, and harm.

The Fourth Law of Public Policy Formation is that nonpartisan scoring can rank ideas.

(OPNT) One-Page
Narrative Tool

Uses the following ground truth:

There’s a time to save
and a time to spend,
a time for freedom
and a time for laws.
Where can we agree?”

This yields four legs of the political table: Abundance, Thrift, Governance, and Commerce, poetically our Political DNA, ACGT.

A Level
Playing Field

The four sides of the table are…

Abundance Governance (AG)
National Public Sector and NGOs,

Abundance Commerce (AC)
Technology and New Businesses,

Thrift Government (TG)
Local Municipalities, Guilds, and Consumers, and

Thrift Commerce (TC)
Established Supply Chains and Jobs.

Each side has a bias for change and a bias for the status quo. We scan these eight Information Walls for Key YES and NO Reasons, no cherry-picking.

Treasure
Hunt

The Political Parrots have a key reason they don’t want us to know about because it ruins their argument. We search for these, like a treasure hunt, and sort them using our EMIT format: Emotions, Money, Information, and Timespan. We listen for these key signals in the political noise.

Key Reasons can look similar, so we edit for redundancy and look for errors, omissions, and innovations.

We search for solutions with the highest hypothetical nonpartisan rating. Something that would solve 80% of the problem with the simplest 20% solution. The Pareto principle, hence a Parrotopia.

Definition of
Political Parrots

Are you making up your own mind or marching to the beat of a political parrot?

  1. Political Parrots get paid to squawk the same thing over and over again.
  2. They don’t listen if you’re not paying.
  3. They don’t fully understand what they’re saying.
  4. They are charming and sport every color.

We look to filter out the GRIFTERS, Gaslighting, Red-herrings, Idolizing, False-dilemmas, Tunnel-vision, Exclusions, Reductions, and Straw-man arguments. 

You can make up your mind. Where can we agree?

Birds of a Feather
AI

Once the Key Reasons are set, we use the Birds of a Feather AI for loose ties to beliefs, attitudes, values, and ethics. Over 16 million combinations are possible for the 128 roles. The game board starts balanced at zero, with an equal bias for change and the status quo.

We then prescore the puzzle using 56 arch-type roles that most embody each of the 56 loose ties. This yields a general bias for change or status quo and reveals ties.

The editors break the ties and review all 128 roles for specific reasons to overrule the general AI where necessary. These are noted in the Tuesday Tiebreaker article.

Then, we finish the puzzle by applying the most fitting YES or NO reason per role on all four sides of the Political Table: eight Information Walls, sixteen Subcultural Windows, sixteen Bias Columns, and sixteen Influence Rows.

SAT9
AI

When the scoring is done, a second AI looks for inconsistencies using the SAT9 AI filter (Situational Assessment Tool). This is 256 ‘supreme courts’ where each role is the chief justice in a presumed 5-4 and 4-5 bench. This generates a ± error margin.

The engine for the AI is our One-Page Narrative Tool (OPNT), which we gamified for role-playing at policykeys.com. We call our AI, POLI for Political Omnibus Leadership Initiative. Soon, you can use it as your Political Digital Twin and generate a personal public policy advisor report on any PolicyKeys puzzle.

You can read more about PolicyKeys™ in the upcoming book, Politics 4.0: How Gamification, AI, and National Idea Leaderboards Can Help You Depolarize the World. The Observatory of Public Sector Innovation (OPSI) at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has recognized PolicyKeys™ for digital engagement.

Collegiate
PolicyKeys

We seek to partner with a lead university to host a national collegiate PolicyKeys association for political depolarization, innovation in public policy, idea competitions, team competitions, AI upgrades, polling, data science, and journalism. Just respond on social media, @policykeys on Mastodon.

Weekly
Puzzle

new PolicyKeys™
Where Can We Agree?® puzzle 
drops every 
Monday at 7 a.m. Eastern at PolicyKeys.com.

PolicyKeys™ Where Can We Agree? is a real-life role-playing game. Each week, there are sixteen sets of eight ‘rival’ roles. Sit awhile in each of their eight chairs and predict whether a majority of people in those roles would say Yes or No to the week’s question.

The best ideas land on the US Public Policy Leaderboard (US-PPL) if a majority of each of the four sides of the political table agree. You can play this week’s puzzle at PolicyKeys.com.

YOU CAN PLAY THIS WEEK’S PUZZLE AT POLICYKEYS.COM.

Cue the
Patriotic Music

Imagine a world not paralyzed by political squawking. A Parrot-otopia oasis in a desert of division. Where the sounds of the silent super-majority drown out the droning of the hyper-partisan parrots.

We’ll be freed from the cages of entrenched ideology to fly higher in the big sky of American beliefs, attitudes, values, and ethics. To boldly go where no political parrot has gone before—ranking solutions with a nonpartisan score.

Anthem

Where Can We Agree? 
(Why Don’t You Want To Know?)

You can play this week’s puzzle at PolicyKeys.com.

Fly
higher

Citizen Watchdogs Eye Congress’ ‘Killing it’ Approach to Stock Trading
ABC News

Track Congress Members Stock Trades
Capital Trades

Senators Trading Stocks
Senate Stock Watcher

Look Where Others Don’t
Quiver Quantitative

The STOCK Act
Investopedia

A Primer on the STOCK Act
Open Secrets

78 Members of Congress Have Violated the STOCK Act
Business Insider

I Helped Write the STOCK Act, It Didn’t Go Far Enough
Politico

Do senators and house members beat the stock market? Evidence from the STOCK Act
Science Direct

Examining Stock Trade Reforms for Congress
Cato

STOCK Act Signing
C-SPAN

“Trading” Political Favors: Evidence from the Impact of the STOCK Act
University of California Irvine

Did Politicians Use Non-Public Macroeconomic Information in Their Stock Trades? Evidence from the STOCK Act of 2012
MDPI

STOCK Act 2.0
porter.house.gov

STOCK Act isn’t preventing government officials from benefitting from insider trading
Patriot Ledger Opinion

It takes guts to see things from all four sides of the political table.
[::]


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