The Trillion Dollar Coin could be a tiebreaker to end this deadly game of debt default chicken. Which roles were called for or against? Welcome to Tiebreaker Tuesday. It’s POLI THE AI vs. our editors, the changemakers vs. the gatekeepers, the short-term vs. the long-term. Breaking ties might help you decide whether to be for or against a solution.
Political parrots just think you’re blue or red or stupid. But you have an open mind, or you wouldn’t be reading this. We’re constantly searching for silent supermajority solutions to the biggest challenges of our time.
Should the US mint a trillion-dollar coin to avoid a government shutdown?
When the US went off the gold standard, essentially the world yawned. Since the 1970s the dollar has been as high as 125 in the 1980s and as low as 80 after the Great Recession. Would minting a trillion-dollar coin to avoid a self-inflicted financial crisis be any different? A strong dollar makes importers happy. A weaker dollar and exporters are happy. Is all this just about exporters vs. importers and currency traders?
SPOILER ALERT
If you’re into role-playing, then swoop on over to policykeys.com for this week’s public policy puzzle. This week’s political flap starts with our Monday Puzzle Drop article.
Two Types of Noise
Two types of noise make public policy difficult to understand. First, the literal is the constant chatter from political parrots – those who dominate conversations to promote their interests, often with hypocritical irrationality, muddying public discourse. We call this the First Law of Public Policy Formation: People with short-term focus naturally protect their wages, jobs, status, profits, and wealth.
The next kind of noise, the figurative, is the overwhelming influx of information that obstructs discerning meaningful, practical signals to guide decision-making. Identifying and ranking reasons for or against policies on a nonpartisan scale is our primary mission, embodying the Fourth Law of Public Policy Formation. Scroll down for all four laws.
In this article, our AI called POLI recognizes key undecided players and fence-leaners who could be swayed. We predict that a majority in each societal role would say YES or NO, not every single person.
We predict an 66% ±7 vast super-majority of roles in this country to support Minting a Trillion Dollar Coin to Avoid a Debt Default, including a majority of each of the four sides of the political table, making this a US Public Policy Leaderboard (US-PPL) worthy idea.
Tiebreaker
Tiebreaker Tuesday
POLI The AI looks at millions of variables for a general bias for change or status quo per role per puzzle. We call these loose ties to beliefs, attitudes, values, and ethics.
We’re here to break the tie for POLI’s fence-perchers in the Sudden Depth first half.
Then we Call a Fowl on the roles where the editors disagreed with POLI for a specific reason in the second half.
Game on
Debt Ceiling
Sudden Depth
First Half
‘NO’
Free Press (26)
The debt’s mounting size keeps journalists awake at night, fearing a fiscal collapse. However, they also see the potential for groundbreaking stories if the coin is minted. Called NO.
Liberty Republicans (2)
The idea of destabilizing the dollar in foreign markets terrifies them, envisioning a weakened America. However, financial innovation, like their cryptocurrency is not lost on them. Called NO.
HMOs (32)
The prospect of increased government interventions in healthcare sends shivers down their spines. However, they acknowledge that averting a debt default could stabilize the economy, benefiting them indirectly. Called NO.
Investment Banks (14)
Speeding up obsolescence in the financial sector is a nightmare scenario for them. However, they can’t ignore the lucrative opportunities that such a bold move could create. Called NO.
Local Builders (28)
The thought of countries cornering commodity markets makes them anxious about rising construction costs. However, they’re curious about the potential for new projects if the U.S. debt issue is resolved. Called NO.
National Lenders (32)
Increased government interventions could disrupt their lending models, causing unease. However, they also see the potential for a more stable lending environment if the debt default is averted. Called NO.
Big Ag (4)
The risk of trade wars disrupting agricultural exports is a significant concern. However, they’re also aware that a stable U.S. economy could boost domestic sales. Called NO.
‘YES’
Gun Owners (27)
The prospect of reduced crime due to increased prosperity excites them, imagining safer communities. However, they’re wary that a stronger government could enact stricter gun regulations. Called YES.
Urban Investors (19)
The idea of economic development zones flourishing thrills them, envisioning skyrocketing property values. However, they’re cautious about the potential market volatility that such a drastic move could cause. Called YES.
Second Half
Calling Fowls
on POLI
These are the roles that the editors specifically overruled POLI THE AI’s general call on change vs. status quo.
‘NO’ Reasons (Even Numbers)
Grouped by ‘NO’ Reason: 32
(Increased Government Interventions)
Liberty Independent
The looming shadow of more government interventions unsettles them, fearing a loss of individual freedom. However, they recognize that averting a debt crisis could preserve liberty in the long run. Overruled for YES.
Business Independent
Increased government interventions make them nervous about the future of free enterprise. However, they admit that avoiding a debt default could stabilize the business environment. Overruled for YES.
Grouped by ‘NO’ Reason: 8
(May Increase Inflation)
Urban PT
The thought of rising inflation worries them, as it could erode their part-time earnings. However, they see the benefit of avoiding a debt crisis for urban development. Overruled for NO.
Rural Part Time
Inflation is a concern, fearing it could dilute their already limited income. However, they also see the upside of a stable economy for rural communities. Overruled for NO.
Suburban Full Time
The fear of inflation gnaws at them, considering its impact on suburban living costs. However, they’re hopeful that averting a debt crisis could bring financial stability. Overruled for NO.
Rural Full Time
Inflation is a significant worry, as it could hit rural areas hard. However, they see the merit in avoiding a national financial crisis. Overruled for NO.
Nonworkers
The threat of inflation is a concern, especially for those without a steady income. However, they also see the benefit of a stable economy for social programs. Overruled for NO.
Food Chain(s)
Inflation could disrupt their pricing models, causing concern. However, they also see the potential for growth if a debt crisis is averted. Overruled for NO.
Grouped by ‘NO’ Reason: 26
(The Debt is Worrisome)
Telecom
The growing national debt alarms them, fearing it could impact tech investments. However, they also see the coin as a potential catalyst for innovation. Overruled for NO.
Governors
The mounting debt worries them, as it could lead to federal funding cuts. However, they see the potential for more state autonomy if the crisis is averted. Overruled for NO.
CPAs & FP
The increasing debt is a red flag, fearing it could disrupt financial markets. However, they’re intrigued by the new economic possibilities the coin could offer. Overruled for NO.
Rural Professionals
The debt’s size is a concern, fearing it could limit rural development funds. However, they also see the potential for new opportunities if the crisis is averted. Overruled for NO.
Grouped by Reason: 28
(Countries Cornering Commodities)
Venture Capital
The idea of countries cornering commodity markets is unsettling, fearing it could stifle startups. However, they’re excited about the innovation that could come from averting a debt crisis. Overruled for NO.
Family Farms
The thought of countries dominating commodity markets worries them, fearing for their livelihoods. However, they also see the potential for agricultural innovation if the crisis is averted. Overruled for NO.
Home Services
Cornering of commodity markets is a concern, as it could increase material costs. However, they’re optimistic that a stable economy could boost home services. Overruled for NO.
Ag States
Countries controlling commodity markets is a significant worry, fearing it could hurt state economies. However, they also see the benefit of a stable national economy for agriculture. Overruled for NO.
Materials
The prospect of countries dominating commodity markets is alarming, fearing it could disrupt supply chains. However, they’re hopeful that averting a debt crisis could stabilize markets. Overruled for NO.
YES Reasons (Odd Numbers)
Landlords (19)
The idea of economic development zones excites them, envisioning higher property values and rental incomes. However, they’re cautious about the potential for increased regulations on property management. Overruled for YES.
Republican Hawks (3)
The notion of asserting American power through financial audacity secretly thrills them, seeing it as a show of strength. However, they’re wary of the potential diplomatic fallout that could ensue. Overruled for YES.
C-Suite (19)
The prospect of economic development zones is enticing, imagining a surge in business opportunities. However, they’re concerned about the potential for market volatility that could affect corporate stability. Overruled for YES.
Recap
Sudden Depth:
The 9 Tied Roles broke YES 2 and NO 7 for Net 5 NO.
Called a Fowl:
These 20 Roles broke YES 3 and NO 17 for Net 14 NO.
Tiebreaker
The 29 Roles broke YES 5 and NO 24
for a Net 19 NO.
POLI predicts that the final version of the puzzle has an error margin of ± 7% of 128 roles or about 18 roles.
The error margin is determined by 256 deadlocked ‘supreme courts’ with each role being the chief justice in both an assumed 5-4 and 4-5 court. Each court is determined by close ties to other “like” roles.
For this puzzle, there were 29 Noisy guests out of 128 roles, which means 99 Roles were rather easy to call, meaning it’s clearly in their best interest to say YES or NO.
Nonpartisan Score
We predict a 66% ±7 strong supermajority of roles in this country to support Minting the Trillion Dollar Coin as a failsafe against a US Debt Default, including a majority of each of the four sides of the political table, making this a US Public Policy Leaderboard (US-PPL) worthy idea.
Congress’s approval rating is 21%, the Supreme Court’s is 40%, the media’s 27%, and the average score of the policies on the PolicyKeys™ US Public Policy Leaderboard (US-PPL) is 73%, with many above 80%—Politics 4.0 is already 2x to 3x better model of US political sentiment and direction than politics as usual.
You can Role-Play
the Puzzle at PolicyKeys.com
The Four Laws of Public Policy Formation
The First is that people with short-term focus naturally protect their wages, jobs, status, profits, and wealth.
The Second is that people with longer-term focus place bets to make life better, longer, easier, or different.
The Third is that the clash of the short-term and long-term folks causes noise, angst, and conflict.
The Fourth is that public policies can be scored with a nonpartisan rating, ranked on leaderboards, and subjected to verification by informed polling.
Methodology
We search for solutions with the highest hypothetical nonpartisan rating. Something that would solve 80% of the problem with the simplest 20% solution.
Then we search the eight Information Walls for Key YES and NO Reasons, no cherry-picking.
The Key Reasons are sorted using our EMIT format, Emotions, Money, Information, and Timespan. We search for the key signals in the political noise.
Key Reasons can look similar so we edit for redundancy and look for errors, omissions, and innovations.
We filter out the GRIFTERS; Gaslighting, Red-herrings, Idolizing, False-dilemmas, Tunnel-vision, Exclusions, Reductions, and Straw-man arguments.
Birds of a Feather AI
Once the Key Reasons are set, we prescore the puzzle using the “Birds of a Feather AI” for loose ties to beliefs, attitudes, values, and ethics. Over 16 million combinations are possible for the 128 roles. Each game board starts balanced at zero, with an equal bias for change and the status quo.
We then prescore the puzzle using 56 arch-type roles that embody each of the 56 loose ties the best. This yields a general bias for change and the status quo and reveals ties for all 128 roles.
The editors review all 128 roles for specific reasons and overrule the AI where necessary. These are noted in the Tuesday Tiebreaker article.
Then, we score the puzzle on all four sides of the Political Table: eight Information Walls, sixteen Subcultural Windows, sixteen Bias Columns, and sixteen Influence Rows.
SAT9 AI
When the scoring is done, the AI looks for inconsistencies using the SAT9 AI filter. This is 256 ‘supreme courts’ where each role is the chief justice in a presumed 5-4 and 4-5 bench. This generates a ± error margin.
This is all done on a One Page Narrative Tool (OPNT) that we gamified for role-playing at policykeys.com. We call our AI, POLI for Political Omnibus Leadership Initiative.
You can read more about PolicyKeys™ in the upcoming book, Politics 4.0: How Gamification, AI, and National Idea Leaderboards Can Help You Depolarize the World. The Observatory of Public Sector Innovation (OPSI) at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has recognized PolicyKeys™ for digital engagement.
The Weekly Puzzle
A new PolicyKeys™ Where Can We Agree?® puzzle drops every Monday at 7 a.m. Eastern at PolicyKeys.com.
PolicyKeys™ Where Can We Agree? is a real-life role-playing game. Each week, there are sixteen sets of eight ‘rival’ roles. Sit awhile in each of their eight chairs and predict whether a majority of people in those roles would say Yes or No to the week’s question.
The best ideas land on the US Public Policy Leaderboard (US-PPL) if a majority of each of the four sides of the political table agree. You can play this week’s puzzle at PolicyKeys.com.
Anthem
Where Can We Agree?
(Why Don’t You Want To Know?)
You can play this week’s puzzle at PolicyKeys.com.
Fly Higher
U.S. Code 5112 Denominations, specifications, and design of coins
Cornell Law School
Averting a Debt-Ceiling Disaster
Project Syndicate
Federal Net Interest Costs: A Primer
Congressional Budget Office
One Neat Trick to Raise the Debt Limit
Bloomberg
Trillion Dollar Coin Could Be the Least Bad Option
The Atlantic
The Fed Dismisses the Trillion Dollar Coin
WSJ
Pros and Cons of the Trillion Dollar Coin
The Week
A $1 trillion platinum coin could save the US
Business Insider
Trillion-dollar platinum coin could be minted at the last minute
Axios
The Hidden History of the Trillion-Dollar Coin
Reason
The Trillion-Dollar Coin Idea is Just Another Way to Rip Us Off
Mises Institute
Meet the Genius Behind the Trillion-Dollar Coin
Wired
US Dollar Index – 43-Year Historic Chart
Macrotrends
It takes guts to see things from all four sides of the political table
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