Border Deal

The Senate’s (Almost) Border Deal’s Nonpartisan Box Score

Our Senate briefly had a border deal, and for some reason, it was linked to aid to countries that are currently at war, and the deal fell apart.

We were curious what the border deal’s nonpartisan score would likely be if informed polling were done on this topic.

We left out the foreign aid portion because that’s a different solution to score.

This is a Politics 4.0, four-minute read.

The (Almost)
Border Bill

Costs $118 Billion Dollars

Builds more border walls

Expands detention centers

Hires more Border Agents

Hires more Asylum Officers and Immigration Judges

Expedites asylum hearings vs. “catch and release”

Increases standard of evidence to gain asylum status

Clarifies POTUS powers over immigration

Keeps immigration levels about the same

Less illegal and more legal immigration

First, 5000 migrants a day are screened for asylum claims; some are approved, and some are deported.

If Over 5000 migrants a day appear, then all are detained and deported

The Puzzle

Advocates see the border deal as a step towards enhancing border security and modernizing asylum procedures, aiming to streamline immigration processes and bolster enforcement.

However, critics argue it falls short in key areas: it’s seen as insufficient in securing the border, lacking rigorous measures for more selective entry, and not addressing broader immigration system reforms.

This bill also faces scrutiny for combining immigration issues with unrelated international funding, muddying its focus.

This controversy underscores the challenging balance between securing borders, ensuring fair immigration practices, and addressing the diverse needs of migrants, residents, the nation’s workforce, our overall productivity, and humanity.

BOX SCORE
The Senate’s
(Almost) Border Deal

:Weighted-Average: Forecast of 128 Societal Roles
Super Nonpartisan ScoreOut of 100%.

:82%: ± 2%

TABLE Sides 4/4
INFORMATION Walls 8/8
CULTURAL WINDOWS 15/16
INFLUENCE ROWS 15/16
BIAS COLUMNS 8/8

Top Four Key Reasons
IN FAVOR of the
Border Compromise

Strengthens border security

Increases customers and taxpayers


Helps bring in more skilled labor

Gives Dreamers & Afghans a pathway to citizenship

Top Four Key Reasons AGAINST
the Border Compromise

Doesn’t deport the 11 million existing illegal immigrants

Doesn’t close the border

It may depress wages

It preserves politics as usual

Odd Couples
Leaning Against
the Border Compromise

Note: The key reason # from our model is next to the role. You can play this week’s puzzle at PolicyKeys.com.

Moralist Republicans (8)
(Doesn’t deport the existing 11 million illegal immigrants)
❤️
Sanitation (32)
(Doesn’t close the border enough)

Social Media (16)
(Controversy breeds profits)
❤️
Rural Investors (32)
(Doesn’t close the border enough)

Border & Order Republicans (8)
(Doesn’t deport the existing 11 million illegal immigrants)
❤️
Unions (30)
(It may depress wages)

Planet First Democrats (10)
(Migration isn’t green)
❤️
Big Ag (2)
(Keeps politics as usual)

Odd Couples
Leaning In-Favor
the Border Compromise

Gun Owners (15)
(Strengthens border security)
❤️
Judiciary (5)
(It’s a boost for immigration attorneys)

Party Favor Republicans (27)
(Increases consumers and taxpayers)
❤️
Party Favor Democrats (27)
(Increases consumers and taxpayers)

USA Made (13)
(Helps bring in more skilled labor)
❤️
Importers (29)
(More customers and taxpayers)

Ag States (27)
(More customers and taxpayers)
❤️
Test States (27)
(More customers and taxpayers)

Four
Aha Moments

(YES) because it gives Dreamers & Afghans a citizenship pathway

(YES) because the country is overwhelmingly immigrants

(NO) because it leaves too many issues unresolved

(NO) because the bill is too expensive

Fence
Sitters

After analyzing 48 different loose ties to beliefs, attitudes, values, and ethics, these roles were conflicted, not leaning towards the status quo or change. This is how the editors broke the tie with the key reason.

Should Congress Pass
the Senate’s (Almost) Border Deal?

NO

Moralist Republicans and Hawk Republicans were called “NO” because it doesn’t deport the 11M existing illegal aliens.

Governors were called “NO” because it doesn’t close the border enough.

Sanitation was called “NO” because it might depress wages.

YES

Gun Owners were called YES because it strengthens border security.

HMOs, Lifestyle Businesses, Ag States, Wholesale, Utilities, and Materials were called YES because it increases customers and taxpayers.

Hospitals and USA Made were called YES because it might help bring in more skilled labor

Lodging was called YES because it might expand visas and green cards.

The Fencesitter Round ended
YES 10 and NO 4
YES picks up 6 roles

The Editors Overuled
the AI on these Calls

POLI THE AI makes general calls based on each puzzle, these are the roles the Editors disagreed with the specific key reason.

Should Congress Pass
the Senate’s (Almost) Border Deal?

NO

Border & Order Republicans were called NO because it doesn’t deport the 11 million existing illegal aliens.

Republican Leadership, Rust Belt Independents, and USA First were called NO because it doesn’t close the border enough.

Social Media was called NO because controversy breeds profits and jobs.

Unions were called NO because it might depress wages.

YES

Importers and Food Chains were called YES because it increases customers and taxpayers.

Rural Full-Time Workers were called YES because it creates good jobs for border and asylum officers and will put upward pressure on wages.

This Penalty Round ended YES 3 and NO 6
NO picks up 3 roles

The Tiebreaker Round, the combination of the Fencesitter and Penalty Rounds, ended…
YES 13 and NO 10
YES picks up 3 Roles Overall
The error margin for this puzzle is ±2% or 6 roles. It appears the USPPL model performed well on this puzzle (pending verification from informed polling).

Conclusion: 
LEADERBOARD
WORTHY

The US Public Policy Leaderboard (US-PPL) ranks solutions so ‘us people’ can keep track of what’s most important to the silent supermajority. Hyperpartisan parrots hate it when we think for ourselves.

Senate Border Compromise
Nonpartisan Score
NEAR CONSENSUS

POLI was slightly less optimistic than our editors. We predict an 82% ±2% (6 roles) NEAR CONSENSUS of roles in this country to support the SENATE’S (Almost) BORDER COMPROMISE, including a majority of each of the four sides of the political tablemaking this a US Public Policy Leaderboard (US-PPL) worthy idea. 

90% and up Near Unanimous
80% – 89% NEAR CONSENSUS
75% -79%Vast Supermajority
67% – 74% Strong Supermajority
60% – 66% Supermajority
50% – 59% Majority

By
Contrast

SCOTUS’s approval rating is 41%,
the media is 32%, and
Congress is 15%.

Do we expect you to agree with the supermajority on all the rankings? 

Of course not; you’re human, not a hyper-partisan parrot.

We think you’ll agree with the leaderboard about 3 out of 4 items on average. Why?

The average score of the policies on the PolicyKeys™ US Public Policy Leaderboard (US-PPL) Sweet Sixteen is 76%, with many above 80%Politics 4.0 is already a 2x to 5x better model of US political sentiment and direction than politics as usual.

Fly
Higher

U.S. Chamber of Commerce Applauds U.S. Senate’s Bipartisan Border Security Bill
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

A Border Security Bill Worth Passing
WSJ Editorial Board

Unraveling Misinformation About the Bipartisan Immigration Bill
FactCheck.org

The collapse of bipartisan immigration reform: A guide for the perplexed
Brookings

The High Cost of Unlimited Illegal Immigration
The Daily Signal

Immigration
Gallup

The Senate Border Bill is a Disaster for Border Security
Heritage Foundation

An Analysis of the Senate Border Bill
The American Immigration Council

US Senate unveils $118 billion bill on border security, aid for Ukraine, Israel
Reuters

What’s in the Senate’s Bipartisan Border-Security Bill and How It Would ‘Shut Down’ Illegal Crossings
Wall Street Journal

5 things to know about the border bill at the heart of GOP shutdown threats
The Hill

Resources Related to the Senate Bipartisan Border Bill
The American Immigration Lawyers Association

Here’s what’s in the Senate’s Border Deal
NY Times

Methodology

It takes guts to see things from all four sides of the political table.
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