Debt Ceiling Parrots Seeking Brewskies

Debt Ceiling Parties, Is That a Thing?

Ready to crash the debt ceiling party? While the two parties are busy popping policy balloons, maybe your digital twin already knows your stance—perhaps even better than you.

This virtual you is tuned to your political vibe to make sense of the policy noise. It’s Thirsty Thursday, and your digital twin is serving up fresh perspectives. Are you thirsty?

Let’s tap into a sample Personal Public Policy Advisor Report and get the lowdown on the debt ceiling.

Should we invoke the 14th Amendment
to avoid a US Debt Default?

The 14th Amendment states, “The validity of the public debt…shall not be questioned.” This clause suggests the President has the power to override the debt ceiling to ensure America pays its bills.

Legal scholars argue the President can invoke the 14th to prevent economic calamity if Congress fails to raise the debt limit. Unilaterally raising the debt ceiling using 14th Amendment powers remains controversial but may be necessary to avert catastrophe.

More responsible budgeting is something all four sides of the table can agree on, but in the meantime, there’s a crisis to handle.

Why Care?

The economy was hurt the last time the Government shut down. Workers, professionals, small business owners, and the stock market were harmed.

And this time, we may default on US debt, which is about the same as a self-inflicted gunshot wound. 

A debt default risks the dollar losing its status as the world’s reserve currency. 

Perhaps the stupidest thing the world’s top superpower could do to itself. 

Is there a
Debt Crisis?

The US total net worth is $150T. The debt is $33T, but $7T is intergovernmental, so $25T is owed to others.

Of the $25T, about $7T is held by our foreign country trading partners (they have to put the dollars we give them somewhere).

The remaining $18T is held by Americans wealthy enough to buy US treasury bonds and notes.

The average US household has a net worth of $750,000. The average household debt is $100,000. So that’s a $100,000 / $750,000 or 13% debt to net worth.

The US total net worth is $150T. The net US Debt is $25T.  So, that’s $25T/$150T or 17% debt to net worth. 

Does this sound like an emergency so dire as to risk the full faith and credit of the United States of America?

SPOILER ALERT

This week’s political flap started with our Monday Puzzle Drop article. Tuesday was the Tiebreaker of all the roles that were the most conflicted. Wednesday, we caught politically strange bedfellows dancing on the debt ceiling.

You can role-play this week’s puzzle at PolicyKeys.com.

Debt Ceiling
Hyperpartisan Parrots
Playing Chicken

Drafting a compromise for the debt ceiling showdown has everything to do with the Party Favor Republicans and the Party Favor Democrats fighting over who picks up their earmark checks.

Now, like a dysfunctional family, they are willing to spite the country for the love of parties.

Should the 14 Amendment be invoked to prevent a default on US debt?

Here’s an example of a Personal Public Policy Advisor Report for a random US citizen using our Political Digital Twin tool. Coming soon.

Weekly Feature –
Political Digital Twin

Each week, using a random number generator and our Humanizing Dice, we create a profile of a random citizen, showcasing over a dozen roles they fill.

A RANDOM CITIZEN VENTURES OUTSIDE THEIR NEWS SILO

  • Personality: Vibrant 30-something, social butterfly with Indie and Pop playlist
  • Interests: Sports fanatic, fishing enthusiast, values freedom and autonomy

  • Upbringing:
  • Parent: Border & Order Republican + Corporate Lobbyist for Investment Banks
  • Later Years: Parent turned Entrepreneur

  • Living Situation:
  • Co-habiting with a Democrat Dove
  • Personal Views: Liberty Independent

  • Career Path:
  • Early Years: Bookkeeper for Multi/National, Importer specializing in Brands
  • Now: Non-union accounting Professional at a Local Builder

  • Geography:
  • Lives in a Test State, Rural setting

  • Family Dynamic:
  • Sibling 1: Civil Servant
  • Sibling 2: Personal Services, Hairdresser
  • Sibling 3: Creator, Crowdfunding aficionado

Should the 14 Amendment be invoked to prevent a default on US debt?

NO

  • Corporate Lobby (22)
    Wary, they want to keep the status quo, fearing the 14th may bring new rules.
  • Border & Order Republican (8)
    Cautious, they say no to the 14th, worried it could weaken the republic.
  • Importer (16)
    Nervous, they fear the 14th could shake up global trade, risking their steady flow.
  • Investment Bank (22)
    Apprehensive, they avoid the 14th, scared it could usher in tougher financial oversight.

YES

  • Democrat Dove (7)
    Hopeful, they softly push for the 14th to make finances stable.
  • Liberty Independent (29)
    Thrilled, they back the 14th, seeing it as fiscally smart and increasing options.
  • Crowdfund (29)
    Excited, they rally for the 14th, thinking it will boost trust and commerce.
  • Entrepreneur (29)
    Optimistic, they support the 14th, expecting it to stabilize markets.
  • Non-Union (29)
    Relieved, they like the 14th, thankful it may save their jobs.
  • Test State (9)
    Curious, they play with the 14th idea, aiming to set a financial precedent.
  • Rural Professional (29)
    Grateful, they back the 14th as a safety net for their diverse communities.
  • Civil Servant (25)
    Confident, they trust the 14th to keep public services running smoothly.
  • Multi/National (29)
    Eager, they lean into the 14th, betting it will make global business better.
  • Brands (29)
    Buoyant, they think the 14th will boost consumer trust and their own sales.
  • Local Builder (29)
    Inspired, they make the case for the 14th, seeing it as a bedrock for local growth.
  • Personal Services (29)
    Content, they favor the 14th as a buffer for their key but discretionary services.

Drumroll Please

Wow, a whole lot is going on inside this person’s head, huh? When you add up the sixteen roles’ forecasted opinions, the score is…

YES 12– NO 4 = net +8 YES

The possible scores here are +16 to -16, so +8 indicates that this individual is strongly leaning in favor of invoking the 14th Amendment to avoid a debt default, barring one or more of the NO reasons being way more important than all the YES reasons. Since this is a made-up person, we’ll never know. 

But You Will

  • Choose Your Own Path
    Are you an independent thinker or just parroting politics?
  • Be Your Own Policy Advisor
    While our Digital Twin Tool is cooking, you can still play pundit. Add your scores to this week’s issue here.
  • Break Free From the Echo Chamber
    Amaze your friends and family with your wonkish skills. Get outside your news silo.
  • Why Care What Others Think?
    You’re not just talking politics but life with loved ones.
  • Four Kinds of Love
    We all juggle self-sacrifice, nurturing, tough love, and self-love. What’s your mix on your best day?
  • Family and Politics
    Caring about what matters to those around you? That’s just what families—and good citizens—do.

By The
Numbers

The 14th Amendment to
Protect the Full Faith and Credit of the USA
Nonpartisan Score
Near Consensus
— Support

POLI found NEAR CONSENSUS support. Our editors agreed. We predict an 84% ±2 (6 roles) NEAR CONSENSUS of roles in this country to support the 14TH AMENDMENT TO PROTECT THE FULL FAITH AND CREDIT OF THE USA, including a majority of each of the four sides of the political tablemaking this a US Public Policy Leaderboard (US-PPL) worthy idea. 

90% and up Near Unanimous
80% – 89% NEAR CONSENSUS
75% -79% Vast Supermajority
67% – 74% Strong Supermajority
60% – 66% Supermajority
50% – 59% Majority

By
Contrast

SCOTUS’s approval rating is 41%,
the media is 32%, and
Congress is 15%.

Do we expect you to agree with the supermajority on all the rankings? Of course not; you’re human, not a political parrot.

We think you’ll agree with the leaderboard about 3 out of 4 items on average. Why?

The average score of the policies on the PolicyKeys™ US Public Policy Leaderboard (US-PPL) Sweet Sixteen is 76%, with many above 80%Politics 4.0 is already a 2x to 5x better model of US political sentiment and direction than politics as usual.

Methodology

Fly
Higher

The Validity of the Public Debt Shall Not Be Questioned
Constitution.congress.gov

Average Net Worth
US News & World Report

US Median Household Income
St Louis Fed

Average Household Debt
Motley Fool

US Total Net Worth
Reuters

The Rise and Fall of American Growth
Princeton University Press

The Clinton Surplus
FactCheck.org

U6 Unemployment over 15% in 2008
St Louis Fed

The 2030s Great Depression
ITR Economics

Why America Will Remain the World’s Only Superpower
American Enterprise Institute

How much would a debt default damage the US?
Christian Science Monitor

Have a source for us? Contact info (at) policykeys (dot) com.

It takes guts to see things from all four sides of the political table.
[::]


by