ContrailTales

Contrail Tiebreaker

It’s a high-flying race between the fossil-fuel champions being challenged by the champions of hydrogen fuel. Who will soar to victory? Welcome to Tiebreaker Tuesday, where we show how the editors and POLI THE AI worked out their differences. (5 min)

The Problem

Countries bordering mountains that depend on the runoff to feed their streams will become desperate for water when the ice caps melt.

A solution is to convert all long-haul flights to hydrogen fuel, which would water the planet with the equivalent of one or two Lake Tahoes a year. The extra humidity will help refreeze the poles and re-snow mountain caps. You can read more about it in our intro article.

One-Page Narrative Tool

We utilize a standardized method to vet public policy solutions and give them a nonpartisan score.

AI and humans forecast the level of support or opposition from 128 societal roles and explain why in the simplest terms possible.

The Tiebreaker article shows where the humans broke an AI tie or disagreed with the AI. There’s a link to our methodology at the bottom of this article.

POLI THE AI had these roles without a general bias for the status quo or change when it comes to our hydrogen airplanes solution. The editors use specific reasons to break the tie.

We’re predicting that most people in these roles would either say YES or NO, but not all.

Round One:
Tiebreaker

Should Long-Haul Commercial Air Travel Be Methodically Converted to Hydrogen Fuel?

NO

Investment Banks #10
Climate change is good for business.

Rural Investors #10
Climate change is good for business.

Party Favor Republican #14
Fossil fuel is abundant and affordable

Lifestyle Businesses #14
Fossil fuel is abundant and affordable

Taker States #16
The private sector can sell them water

Core Republicans #20
E-fuels are a better, faster answer

Multi/Nationals #22
Air flight isn’t broken. Don’t fix it.

Auto Makers #24
EVs are better for short hops

Wholesale #30
Will help drive further green inflation

Brands #30
Will help drive further green inflation

YES

Local Builders #9
Climate change is bad for business

401K & IRAS #9
Climate change is bad for business

Food Chains #9
Climate change is bad for business

Home Services #9
Climate change is bad for business

Hospitals #11
Helps avoid 1B climate refugees by 2050

Border & Order Republicans #11
Helps avoid 1B climate refugees by 2050

OEMs #25
Hydrogen jobs and profits

Durables #25
Hydrogen jobs and profits

Round Two:
Flag on the Play

Here are the roles where the editors overruled POLI THE AI and why.

Should Long-Haul Commercial Air Travel Be Methodically Converted to Hydrogen Fuel?

NO

#2 Hydrogen planes are smaller,
fewer seats mean more expensive travel
Suburban Full Time
Suburban Part Time
Venues
Governors
Lodging

#14 Fossil fuels are abundant and cheap
Logistics
Liberty Republicans
Auto Services
Entrepreneurs
Legacy Businesses

#16 The private sector gets to sell water
Exporters
Importers

#22 Airflight isn’t broken, don’t fix it
Business to Business B2B

#24 EVs are better for short hops
Utilities

#30 Will help fuel even more inflation
Digital Republicans
Rural Full Time

YES

#5 Water is cheaper than war
Hawk Republicans

#9 Climate change is bad for business
C-Suite
Urban Investors
Free Press
HMOs

#25 Good jobs and profits from Hydrogen
New Tech

#27 No potable water, no food
Big Agriculture

Tiebreaker Recap

First half TIES

YES 8 v NO 10
NO picks up 2

Second half FOULS

YES 7 v NO 16
NO picks up 9

Final Score

NO won the
Tiebreaker round
picking up a net
11 out of 128 roles
but the final score is
— YES 90 to NO 38 —

Nonpartisan Score for Hydrogen Planes has
STRONG
SUPERMAJORITY SUPPORT

POLI found STRONG SUPERMAJORITY support. Our editors agreed but were slightly less optimistic.

We predict a 71% ±4 (11 roles) 
STRONG SUPERMAJORITY of roles in this country to support HYDROGEN PLANES TO PREVENT WATER WARS, including a majority of each of the four sides of the political tablemaking this a US Public Policy Leaderboard (US-PPL) worthy idea. 

90% and up Near Unanimous
80% – 89% Near Consensus
75% -79% Vast Supermajority
67% – 74% STRONG SUPERMAJORITY
60% – 66% Supermajority
50% – 59% Majority

By
Contrast

SCOTUS’s approval rating is 41%,
the media is 32%, and
Congress is 15%.

Do we expect you to agree with the supermajority on all the rankings? Of course not; you’re human, not a hyper-partisan parrot.

We think you’ll agree with the leaderboard about 3 out of 4 items on average. Why?

The average score of the policies on the PolicyKeys™ US Public Policy Leaderboard (US-PPL) Sweet Sixteen is 76%, with many above 80%Politics 4.0 is already a 2x to 5x better model of US political sentiment and direction than politics as usual.

Fly
Higher

1.2B Climate refugees by 2030
Zurich Insurance Group

‘No Winners” Seen if States Launch Water Wars Amid Mega Drought
Bloomberg Law

Cooling Effect of Clouds Underestimated
World Economic Forum

Why Clouds Are the Key to New Troubling Projections on Warming
Yale e360

How much water is produced by fuel cell cars
Quora

The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation
Environmental and Energy Study Initiative

Are India and Pakistan Headed for Water War?
Deutsche Welle

Is Hydrogen Air-Powered Travel the Future
TU Delft

Water Conflict
Wikipedia

Democratizing Drinking Water By Taking it from Thin Air
Asia Development Blog

Hydrogen for clean energy could be produced from seawater
Sustainability Times

Grey, bluer, green—why are there so many colours of hydrogen
World Economic Forum

Revolutionary Green Energy: A New Hydrogen Fuel Cell Breakthrough
SciTechDaily

Hydrogen: coming to an aircraft near you
Aerospace America

Causes of Drought: What’s the Climate Connection?
Union of Concerned Scientists

New Study Identifies Mountain Snowpack Most ‘at-risk’ from Climate Change
Phys.org

Water Conflict Pathways and Peacebuilding Strategies
United States Institute of Peace

Water scarcity could lead to the next major conflict between Iran and Iraq
Middle East Institute

Total fuel consumption of commercial airlines worldwide between 2005 and 2021, with forecast until 2023
Statista

Drinking Water
World Health Organization

Recovery and quality of water produced by commercial fuel cells
Science Direct

What’s the Percentage of Drinkable Water on Earth?
World Water Reserve

Methodology

It takes guts to see things from all four sides of the political table.
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